As our book, Space Piracy, nears its publication date in February, we are receiving positive feedback from senior people in the military and intelligence community (IC). We have identified an issue worth discussing, at the very least. At the heart of the matter is the difference between space warfare, which is the focus of our military and IC, and space piracy, a looming threat. The two overlap, though they differ in certain critical ways.
One way to think about space warfare vs. space piracy is to view the two activities as existing on a spectrum. On one end, there is clearcut warfare, with nation states fighting each other in space, e.g., by attacking each other’s satellites or other space assets, for strategic gain in a geopolitical conflict. The funny thing is that although we’ve been exposed to vast quantities of entertainment featuring wars in space (Star Wars, anyone?), the contemplation of actual war in space seems to be a matter of abstraction. Will Russia fight Ukraine on the moon? What would that look like in reality, versus the mind of George Lucas?
Serious policy people are certainly focusing on the issue. As but one example, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and its Aerospace Group publish an annual Space Threat Assessment. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) conducts similar research, as does the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). These in-depth analyses focus primarily on the United States’ vulnerability to “counterspace weapons” that can impair satellites that help the US fight wars and defend itself. In particular, they focus on the space war capabilities of China and Russia, as well as Iran, North Korea and other smaller but potentially dangerous states.
At the other end, there is piracy, e.g., malicious actors stealing space cargoes or hijacking space assets for ransom. At some point, the spectrum of illegality crosses over from piracy to warfare. As history shows, piracy often occurs as part of a broader military struggle. For example, British privateers attacked Spanish treasure galleons in the 18th century with the backing of the British crown, which shared in the spoils of these raids. However, because the British navy was not doing the raiding, the British crown had deniability, though they probably didn’t use that word.
The same will probably be the case in space. We may soon see pirates attacking American space assets, ostensibly for financial gain. In reality, however, they will be taking orders from a nation state that wishes to harm the US in space, but does not want the risks associated with committing an actual act of war.
This scenario is currently playing out in the cyber domain, where criminal gangs with evident links to foreign governments are hacking American defense contractors and other strategic targets in the US. When challenged on these acts, the nation states in question claim they had no idea this was going on, and if they did, they can’t control a criminal gang, and so forth. No one believes them. They don’t even believe themselves, but it prevents a major war starting.
For more insight into this topic, we turned to Tyler Bates, a former US Air Force and Space Force officer who spent time analyzing “irregular warfare” in space in a personal capacity. In his view, space piracy could emerge as a form of irregular warfare “used to advance political or military goals through indirect, deniable, legally vague, or forceful means,” as he put it. He elaborated, saying, “Space pirates can also act independently of national sponsors. Space pirates can also be used directly as irregular combatants in a conflict that fight alongside regulars in space. A multipolar world with competing national interests and international norms can be a permissive environment for space piracy.”
Space piracy scenarios could involve the use of mercenaries or private military contractors. There are precedents for this on earth, as exemplified by Russia’s Wagner Group. Such an entity could operate in space, or in ground situations that affect space, e.g., hijacking a spaceport.
Some might ask, “Does the distinction between space warfare and space piracy matter?” It does, when you think about prevention and response. Defensive alliances for military purposes are different from multilateral cooperation to combat piracy. At least, that’s been the case on the world’s oceans. In space, it might be different, but chances are, if we see wars in space, and that’s almost a certainty at some point, we’ll have comparable tactical issues to resolve.